by Bill Nugent
Article #230
Carl Sagan, (1934-1996) the famous astronomer and cosmologist, often invoked the phrase “billions and billions of years” when he claimed that evolution had enough time to work. Random collisions of atoms in the early earth ocean were supposed to produce the first living cell if simply given enough time.
Secularists like Carl Sagan deny God as creator. They want us to bet our souls that there is no God!
The formation of life from nonliving molecules is called chemical evolution. Chemical evolution has to do with the alleged non-created assembly of the first living cell. It is the alleged first step of evolution.
In this article we’ll take a look at the utterly remote probability of simple living things forming by chance. We’ll also see a new plausibility metric that sheds fresh light on the evolution debate.
Scientists Have Done Probability Studies
Modern, observational science has progressed to the point where we now know the exact composition of proteins and the probability of even one protein forming by random, undirected interaction of atoms.
Scientists as prominent as Francis Crick and Harold Morowitz have done probability studies on the random formation of just one protein molecule. A simple cell, such as a bacterium, is composed of hundreds of varieties of protein.
Let’s consider the work of Francis Crick (1916-2004), Nobel prize winning co-discoverer of DNA. Crick did a probability analysis on the possibility of one simple protein forming by chance. The protein would consist of just 200 amino acids in a polypeptide chain. He describes this analysis in his book Life Itself: Its Origin and nature on pages 51–52.
Crick found that the number of possible sequences of the 200 amino acids was ten to the 260th power which is a one with 260 zeros after it. That number, ten to the 260th power, is far more than the number of atoms in the known universe. In other words to get the right sequence to form the protein by chance would be far less of a probability than randomly choosing the right atom out of all the atoms in the universe.
Even if many billions of years of random, unguided churning of atoms is considered, it does little to diminish this immense hurdle of hyper-improbability.
Theoretically Possible but Utterly Implausible
An application of a plausibility analysis to Crick’s probability analysis would show that the one simple protein would never form by chance. A protein forming by chance is nevertheless possible but is totally implausible and thus should not be given scientific respectability.
For argument’s sake let’s say that a protein did form by chance, against all odds, in the primordial soup. In order to form a living cell, that protein would have to combine with other proteins (which would also have to form by chance) and then form a structure, by chance, of cell protoplasm and nucleus to form a cell capable of living. The monstrously high improbability, hence implausibility, of such a scenario should cause all scientifically minded people to falsify the notion of life coming from nonlife. If this first step of evolution falls, the whole evolutionary edifice falls.
Billions of Years are no Refuge for the Damned
Those who promote evolution often make an appeal to “deep time” which is to say “billions and billions of years.” Unfortunately we can’t put billions of years into a test tube and do observational experiments on them. So we have a stalemate.
Random formation of proteins is theoretically possible but should a scientist regard such a hyper-improbable random event plausible and worthy of scientific respect?
Recently there has been some significant movement on the issue of deep time and it looks like the stalemate has started to be resolved even in the highest scientific circles. A peer-reviewed article in a prominent science journal has introduced the “Universal Plausibility Metric” (UPM) as a means of objectively deciding if an event is actually plausible and not just merely possible.
The article by David L. Abel is titled “The Universal Plausibility Metric (UPM)” in the journal Theoretical Biology and Medical Modeling. Vol. 6:27 (Dec 3, 2009).
The following is a quote from Abel’s article: “But at some point our reluctance to exclude any possibility becomes stultifying to operational science. Falsification is critical to narrowing down the list of serious possibilities. Almost all hypotheses are possible. Few of them wind up being helpful and scientifically productive. Just because a hypothesis is possible should not grant that hypothesis scientific respectability.”
Abel goes on to describe the mathematical contents of the Probability Metric and how it can be used to falsify hypotheses if those hypotheses are based on utterly remote possibilities.
Abel’s article gives much ammunition to the creationist and intelligent design movements in the quest to falsify the notion that the first life came about by random interaction of nonliving molecules. The UPM is an objective standard from a respected scientific source. Those who promote evolution will find it impossible to hide behind “billions and billions of years.”
Some evolutionists protest, saying atoms are not in random motion but follow known laws of physics. However, consider that dice on a gaming table in Las Vegas also follow laws of physics. Try throwing dice and getting two sixes 100 times in a row. It’s possible but utterly implausible.
Every Genetic Step of Evolution is Utterly Implausible
The same utterly remote probabilities apply to all steps in the theory of evolution. Genetic mutations, the supposed mechanism of evolution, must also cope with utterly remote probabilities. Genetic mutations are overwhelmingly destructive errors to the DNA.
To put wings on a mouse to form a bat, for example, would require a favorable, extremely large mutation that would add a long strand of properly sequenced base pairs to the DNA. In other words, the coding for wings would have to be added to the DNA of the mouse.
Though theoretically possible such a large favorable mutation would be so extremely improbable that it would be utterly implausible. What about a series of small mutations? A step by step series of small mutations to gradually put wings on mice would also be implausible because partially formed wings, during the process, would be disadvantageous to the mice.
The needed large mutation with hundreds of properly sequenced base pairs would be as hyper-improbable and implausible as the chance formation of the protein we discussed above.
It should be noted that mutations in DNA are caused by errors in the replication of DNA. Such errors in the replication of DNA are often caused by toxins and radiation that interfere with the replication process. Toxins and radiation do not bring new, properly sequenced base pairs to the DNA. The fact that mutations don’t add new, properly sequenced base pairs to DNA is also an insurmountable problem for the evolutionist.
We can confidently say that virtually all steps in the alleged macroevolution process would fail the UPM test. All steps in macroevolution require extremely rare, extremely improbable beneficial random reshufflings of DNA and addition of new coding to DNA. The claim that mutations are the mechanism of evolution is implausible.
Creation is True Because of the Implausibility of the Contrary
Evolution is falsified by the Universal Plausibility Metric. Secular fundamentalists have relied on evolution as their origins myth and have persuaded many into accepting evolution on the false claim that it’s based on science. Evolution is not based on science but rather on hopeful speculation.
It’s becoming clear that secularists must abandon evolution. Since no other secular grand theory of origins is waiting in the wings to replace evolution, secularists are obliged to return to God.
The Revelation of Redemption
The Bible says “For since the creation of the world His invisible attributes are clearly seen, being understood by the things that are made, even His eternal power and godhead, so that they are without excuse” (Romans 1:20 NKJV).
Notice that the verse says that the invisible things of God are clearly seen because of the physical creation. The physical reveals the metaphysical. The world of living things shows a masterful complexity beyond human technology and this clearly shows that God is the intelligent designer and creator of life.
If God is intelligent enough to create life, He must be a person. If God is a person he must also have emotion. If God created the universe, He owns the universe. If God owns the universe, He has the right to give laws to the universe. If God is a person and has emotion and has love, it’s reasonable to assume that He would speak to humanity. God spoke to humanity through the Bible which reveals not only his love for humanity but also the way of redemption and forgiveness of sins.
Each person must turn to Jesus Christ who came in fulfillment of over 300 Old Testament prophecies. God sent Jesus Christ, the promised Messiah of Israel, to die for our sins. This is substitutionary atonement in which Christ took the penalty of our sins upon Himself and died in our place.
“But He [Messiah, Christ] was wounded for our transgressions, He was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement for our peace was upon Him; And by His stripes we are healed. All we like sheep have gone astray; we have turned, every one, to his own way; And the LORD has laid on Him the iniquity of us all” (Isaiah 53:5-6 NKJV, written in the Old Testament over 700 years before Christ was born).
Christ rose from the dead to offer forgiveness of sins to all who repent and turn to Him in faith and ask for forgiveness of sins. I invite you to turn to Christ today to receive forgiveness of sins.
Steps to salvation:
Jesus said “You must be born again” (John 3:7).
1) Believe that God loves you and sent the Messiah (Messiah is Hebrew for Christ) to redeem you.
2) Believe that Jesus Christ came to die for you, to take upon Himself the penalty of your sins (Isaiah 53:5-6, John 6:29, Romans 4:5, First Peter 2:24 & 3:18).
3) Repent of your sins and call on Jesus Christ to ask for forgiveness of sins (Romans 10:13).
4) Receive Jesus as Savior and experience the new birth (John 1:12 & 3:3, Acts 2:38).
5) Follow Jesus Christ as Lord and be baptized (John 14:15, Acts 2:38).
Prayer to receive salvation:
To receive the salvation which Jesus purchased for us at the terrible cost of His suffering and death on our behalf I invite you to pray this simple prayer:
“Dear heavenly Father, I thank you for sending Jesus, the promised Messiah, to die for my sins. I admit that I’m a sinner. I repent of my sins and I ask you to forgive me on the basis of the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. I ask you to fill me with your Holy Spirit to empower me to serve you under the Lordship of Jesus Christ, Amen.”
If you prayed this prayer in the humble sincerity of your heart, then you have received everlasting life, which includes power to live right in this life and entrance into heaven in the afterlife!
William (Bill) Nugent, Overcomer Ministries of Fort Mill, South Carolina, USA
(C) 2025 William Nugent, permission granted to translate, email or republish for Christian outreach. <>{
Christian books, “Lawful or Legalistic” and “The Cross, Self-Denial and the Manifestation of the Sons of God” by Bill Nugent are available on Amazon.
Back issues of Defending the Faith are archived on our website at www.bnugent.org
Steps to salvation:
Jesus said “Ye must be born again” (John 3:7).
- 1) Believe that God created you and loves you and sent the Messiah (Messiah is Hebrew for Christ) to redeem you.
- 2) Believe that Jesus Christ came in fulfillment of over 300 Bible prophecies to die for you, to take upon Himself the penalty of your sins (Isaiah 53:5-6, John 6:29, Romans 4:5, First Peter 3:18).
- 3) Turn from sin and call on the name of Jesus to receive forgiveness of sins (Romans 10:13).
- 4) Receive Jesus as Savior and experience the new birth (John 1:12, Acts 2:38).
- 5) Follow Jesus Christ as Lord (John 14:21).
Prayer to receive salvation:
“Whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved” (Romans 10:13).
To receive the salvation that Jesus purchased for us at the terrible cost of His suffering and death on our behalf I invite you to pray this simple prayer:
“Dear heavenly Father, I thank you for sending Jesus, the promised Messiah, to die for my sins. I admit that I am a sinner. I repent of my sins and I ask for your forgiveness on the basis of the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. I ask you to fill me with your Holy Spirit to empower me to serve you under the Lordship of Jesus Christ, Amen.”
If you prayed this prayer in the humble sincerity of your heart then you have received everlasting life, which includes power to live right in this life and entrance into heaven in the afterlife!
(C) 2016 William P. Nugent, permission granted to email or republish for Christian outreach.